Key Takeaways
- GF Securities upgraded Broadcom (AVGO) with a $450 price target following increased projections for Google’s TPU chip shipments
- Updated TPU shipment forecasts now predict 4.5M units in 2026 and 7.9M in 2027, exceeding previous 6M estimate
- Broadcom’s Ironwood and Sunfish chip products currently lead the market as the sole options available for customer validation
- Chief Executive Hock Tan indicated visibility toward exceeding $100B in artificial intelligence revenue by 2027
- Wall Street analysts believe the $100B projection is understated, with calculations suggesting potential revenue of $180B–$200B
Broadcom (AVGO) shares were changing hands at $320.55, gaining 0.71%, during Wednesday’s morning session.
The semiconductor giant is capturing renewed investor interest following an analyst upgrade and growing speculation that its ambitious $100B AI revenue target for 2027 may significantly underestimate actual potential.
GF Securities analyst Alicia Xia elevated her price objective for Broadcom to $450 from a previous level, maintaining her Buy recommendation. The adjustment follows her revised upward estimates for Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) shipment volumes.
Xia’s updated projections anticipate aggregate TPU shipments reaching 4.5M units in 2026, climbing to 7.9M in 2027. The 2027 estimate represents a substantial increase from her previous 6M unit forecast, primarily attributed to anticipated expansion in third-party sales channels.
Broadcom-manufactured TPU volumes are estimated at 4.1M units for 2026 and 5.8M for 2027. The company’s Ironwood and Sunfish product lines currently represent the only stock-keeping units available for customer validation processes. A rival solution from MediaTek, designated Zebrafish, remains in pre-testing stages, positioning Broadcom advantageously in the market.
Xia also anticipates continued upward pricing momentum, with Broadcom’s forthcoming Pumafish chip architecture potentially exceeding $20,000 per unit in 2027 due to enhanced technical complexity and advanced design specifications.
Debating the $100B Revenue Threshold
The more significant narrative emerging centers on whether Broadcom’s self-disclosed AI revenue projection substantially underrepresents forthcoming results.
During the company’s March 4 quarterly earnings discussion, CEO Hock Tan stated that Broadcom maintains clear visibility toward surpassing $100B in AI-related revenue by 2027. While impressive on its face, several analysts challenged this figure — not to question its feasibility, but to suggest it’s actually too modest.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon attempted to establish a more granular revenue calculation using gigawatt measurements — a metric representing data center power infrastructure capacity. He compiled Broadcom’s documented customer obligations: 3 GW committed from Anthropic, 1 GW from OpenAI, a minimum of 2 GW from Meta, and at least 3 GW from Google. His tally suggests approximately 9–10 GW deployment by 2027.
Tan validated this assessment, acknowledging Broadcom is “seeing it getting close to 10 gigawatts” for the 2027 timeframe.
Rasgon subsequently applied his revenue-per-gigawatt calculation of approximately $20B. This methodology received support from Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who referenced Broadcom’s 2026 Anthropic infrastructure project — a 1 GW deployment anticipated to generate $20B in revenue.
Multiplying $20B per gigawatt across 10 gigawatts yields estimates ranging from $180B to $200B — substantially exceeding the company’s published guidance.
Tan offered measured agreement, noting that per-gigawatt revenue metrics fluctuate across different customers, but conceding the calculations are “not far off.”
Component Supply Secured Through 2028
Broadcom has additionally locked in commitments for advanced-node semiconductor wafers, high-bandwidth memory modules, packaging substrates, and through-glass via technology extending through 2028 — one year beyond its current projection timeline.
Melius analyst Ben Reitzes observed that Broadcom appears to be the first major player to secure these critical supply chain components with such extended lead times.
The average analyst price target for AVGO currently stands at $435.30, suggesting approximately 36% appreciation potential from present trading levels, based on ratings from 33 covering analysts.
