Key Takeaways
- Shares have declined 8.2% in 2025 and reached their weakest closing price since mid-December during Thursday’s session
- The chipmaker’s forward P/E ratio stands at 19.7x compared to the S&P 500’s 20.3x — the first discount in over a decade
- Wolfe Research maintains an Outperform stance with a $275 target after Nvidia unveiled Rubin Ultra “Pods” at GTC
- Jensen Huang’s recent comments suggest production of approximately 200 pods weekly — translating to potential monthly revenue of $120 billion, according to Wolfe’s analysis
- J.P. Morgan data reveals NVDA continues to dominate as the top individual equity purchase among retail traders
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) ended Thursday’s trading session at $109.02, marking the lowest close since mid-December as artificial intelligence stocks face sustained selling pressure.
In premarket activity Friday, NVDA shares edged higher by 0.3% following Thursday’s downturn.
Year-to-date performance shows the stock down 8.2% entering Friday’s trading.
This recent weakness has created an unusual valuation dynamic: Nvidia now appears cheaper than the overall market by a key metric. The company’s forward price-to-earnings multiple currently sits at 19.7x based on FactSet data. This represents a discount compared to the S&P 500’s 20.3x forward P/E.
This marks a significant reversal. According to Dow Jones Market Data, Nvidia had commanded a valuation premium over the S&P 500 on a forward P/E basis continuously from February 2013 through late February 2025 — an unbroken 13-year stretch.
That pattern finally changed on February 28, coinciding with escalating Iran-related tensions that weighed on investor sentiment. Since that date, Nvidia has fluctuated between trading at a premium and discount relative to the broader index.
Strong Retail Demand Persists
The recent price decline hasn’t deterred individual investors. For the week concluding March 25, Nvidia held the top position as the most frequently purchased individual stock by retail traders, based on J.P. Morgan’s weekly retail trading analysis.
The stock also received universally favorable views from investment professionals featured in Barron’s Roundtable.
Meanwhile, Broadcom (AVGO) declined 0.9% in Friday’s premarket session, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) similarly dropped 0.9%.
Analyst Confidence in Rubin Ultra Pod Economics
Wolfe Research reaffirmed its Outperform rating alongside a $275 price objective for NVDA this week, pointing to the company’s GTC conference unveiling of Rubin Ultra “Pods” — specialized reference designs optimized for agentic AI datacenter deployments.
Wolfe’s analysis values Nvidia content at approximately $150 million per pod. About two-thirds of this figure stems from VR200 racks, with Groq contributing the most substantial portion of additional revenue.
The research firm highlighted that newly introduced components such as CPU, storage, and Groq technology could boost revenue by 50% beyond VR compute racks alone. Specifically, Groq LPX racks provide an extra 25% revenue opportunity above the VR200 baseline, delivering low-latency inference capabilities for premium service offerings.
In a recent conversation on Lex Fridman’s podcast, CEO Jensen Huang indicated the company might need to manufacture “about 200 of these per week, just for context.” Wolfe Research extrapolated this figure: 200 pods produced each week translates to approximately $120 billion in monthly revenue potential — a striking comparison against current 2027 consensus revenue projections of $482 billion for the full year.
Rosenblatt Securities sustained its Buy recommendation with a $325 price target, highlighting visibility into Blackwell and Rubin platform orders exceeding $1 trillion through 2027. Cantor Fitzgerald similarly maintained an Overweight rating at $300 after attending Nvidia’s GTC conference. Data from InvestingPro indicates 31 analysts have revised their earnings projections upward for the coming period, with price targets extending as high as $380.
