TLDR
- Nvidia shares have dropped approximately 3% following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 27
- According to Jim Cramer, while war’s effect on NVDA is difficult to measure, underlying demand dynamics stay robust
- Wells Fargo suggests Nvidia’s $1 trillion data center revenue projection for Blackwell and Rubin GPU lines might be understated
- Analyst Aaron Rakers from Wells Fargo projects 15–20%+ potential upside for 2026–2027 data center revenue estimates
- Major cloud service providers plan to roll out approximately 22GW and 25GW of AI infrastructure for 2026 and 2027
Shares of Nvidia have experienced roughly a 3% decline following the commencement of Iranian hostilities on February 27, leaving market participants wondering how much of this downturn stems from geopolitical concerns versus other market forces.
During Thursday’s broadcast of “Mad Money,” CNBC host Jim Cramer tackled this question head-on, offering investors a framework to assess Nvidia’s current position. His takeaway: the recent price weakness isn’t exclusively driven by conflict concerns, and the company’s core business case remains intact.
“Nvidia is a big part of the stock market itself and so it’s the easiest stock in the world to trade,” Cramer said. “I think it’s going down because it is so easy to get back in at a lower level.”
With President Trump postponing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, market volatility has intensified. Cramer emphasized that predicting when geopolitical tensions will resolve is essentially impossible.
Interest rates also factor in. Higher rates could slow the data center buildout by raising borrowing costs. But Cramer added: “If the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you’ll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia.”
From a supply perspective, the technology sector faces constraints in both computing power and memory resources, which means Nvidia chip demand is primarily limited by pricing rather than absence of customer interest.
“Everything you use Nvidia for is considered mission critical,” Cramer said, brushing off concerns about energy costs at data centers. Nvidia’s facilities run mostly on domestic natural gas, which has “barely budged.”
Cramer highlighted that sovereign wealth funds from Gulf nations have been instrumental in financing data center development. Some worry this capital source might evaporate. However, following his attendance at Nvidia’s GTC conference the previous week, Cramer reported witnessing “incredibly strong” demand levels.
His bottom line: while he’s not aggressively bullish, when pressed to decide, he’d prefer buying slightly ahead of the curve rather than missing a potential rebound. “You’re ultimately being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you’d normally expect.”
Wells Fargo Projects Greater Revenue Potential Than Nvidia’s Own Guidance
In a separate development, Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers stated Thursday that Nvidia’s self-projected $1 trillion data center revenue target — spanning Blackwell and Rubin GPU products through 2027 — may prove conservative.
Rakers maintains an Overweight stance with a $265 price objective on NVDA shares, projecting potential upside of 15–20% or more relative to Wall Street consensus for 2026–2027 data center revenue.
His reasoning centers on infrastructure deployment figures: the five largest cloud computing companies are anticipated to install approximately 22 gigawatts of AI infrastructure during 2026, followed by 25 gigawatts in 2027. Such deployment volumes suggest considerably higher Nvidia revenues than current analyst models reflect.
“From this, we present a pluggable model implying ~$120B+ of NVDA data center revenue upside for 2026–2027 vs. consensus estimates,” Rakers wrote.
Breaking Down the $1 Trillion Revenue Pipeline
Within the disclosed $1T+ Blackwell and Rubin order pipeline, Wells Fargo calculates that approximately $840 billion is slated for delivery during 2026 and 2027. As of January 2026, roughly $150–$155 billion of that total had been recognized as revenue.
Rakers estimates that Nvidia had rolled out about 9 gigawatts of Blackwell infrastructure by the conclusion of fiscal Q4 2026, with Blackwell GPUs representing approximately 65–70% of that volume. This translates to roughly $25 billion in revenue per gigawatt deployed.
While Rakers hasn’t officially increased his revenue projections yet, he indicated willingness to do so should deployment metrics continue exceeding current expectations.
