TLDR
- Tesla reported Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,023 units, below the anticipated 372,160 from Wall Street analysts
- Shares of TSLA declined between 4.6% and 5.4% following the announcement, adding to a 15% year-to-date loss
- Energy storage deployment reached only 8.8 GWh, significantly under the projected 14.4 GWh
- Truist Securities reduced its price target from $438 down to $400 while keeping a Hold rating
- Wedbush Securities maintained its Outperform rating with a $600 target, citing AI initiatives and autonomous vehicle plans
Tesla (TSLA) reported worldwide vehicle deliveries of 358,023 units for Q1 2026, coming in below analyst expectations of 372,160. This represents the company’s second consecutive quarter missing delivery forecasts.
Today's Tesla deliveries came in at 387,000, well below everyone's expectations.
But Kalshi traders were closer than most, if not all, Wall Street analysts!
Analyst consensus: 431,125
Kalshi Forecast: 412,000Our traders gave a 7% chance of deliveries below 400k! pic.twitter.com/Ukpjc2FV5c
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 2, 2024
Shares declined 4.6% at Thursday’s market open, marking the sharpest single-day drop in approximately two months. TSLA has fallen 15% since the start of the year and sits 22% below its December peak.
While deliveries increased 6.3% year-over-year from Q1 2025—when production line upgrades and negative sentiment toward CEO Elon Musk impacted results—the current quarter represents the company’s weakest performance since the middle of 2022 when those factors are removed from consideration.
The company’s volume models, Model 3 and Model Y, comprised 341,893 deliveries. The remaining 16,130 units consisted of Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck vehicles. Manufacturing output totaled 408,386 units for the period, creating a significant inventory buildup between production and customer deliveries.
The energy division also underperformed expectations. Tesla installed 8.8 GWh of energy storage capacity throughout the quarter, representing a decline from the 10.4 GWh deployed in the prior-year period and substantially missing Wall Street’s 14.4 GWh projection. William Blair’s forecast had been even higher at 18 GWh.
Wall Street Responds
Truist Securities lowered its TSLA price objective from $438 to $400 while maintaining its Hold rating. William Stein, the firm’s analyst, highlighted that both automotive deliveries and energy deployments came in below forecasts, suggesting investors should concentrate on the company’s Full Self-Driving technology and artificial intelligence progress instead of quarterly delivery metrics.
Oppenheimer’s analysis showed a 2% gap versus consensus estimates compiled from various sources. William Blair reaffirmed its Market Perform stance after reviewing the energy storage figures.
Wedbush Securities stood by its optimistic view, keeping both its Outperform rating and $600 price objective intact. The firm emphasized Tesla’s artificial intelligence strategy, autonomous taxi deployment timeline, and infrastructure investments as justification for its bullish position. According to Wedbush, short-term delivery figures are less important than these longer-term initiatives.
Challenging Industry Dynamics
The elimination of federal EV tax credits in September created an artificial surge in late-2024 purchases, making year-over-year comparisons more difficult. Additionally, the current administration has reversed several emissions regulations and electric vehicle subsidies, leading competing manufacturers to increase their internal combustion engine offerings.
Tesla is discontinuing production of the Model S and Model X—its longest-running products—while ramping up for mass production of the Cybercab, a fully autonomous two-seat vehicle without traditional controls. Musk has indicated production will commence shortly, though market demand remains unclear.
Despite these challenges, Tesla’s Chinese operations showed strength. EV sales from China-based production increased 8.7% compared to March of the previous year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. Combined Model 3 and Model Y deliveries from the Shanghai manufacturing facility surged 46.2% month-over-month in March, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.
