Key Takeaways
- Bernstein initiates coverage on Figure Technology (FIGR) with an “Outperform” rating and $67 price target, representing 109% upside from current ~$32 levels.
- March loan originations reached a record $1.2 billion, marking a 33% sequential increase and the company’s first billion-dollar month.
- First quarter originations totaled $2.9 billion, representing more than 2x growth compared to the prior-year period, with annualized run-rate approaching $12 billion.
- Despite operational momentum, FIGR shares have declined over 20% year-to-date amid broader digital asset sector volatility.
- Analysts apply a ~25x multiple to 2027 EBITDA projections, reflecting Figure’s positioning as both a blockchain infrastructure company and operating lender.
Bernstein analysts published an optimistic initiation report on Figure Technology (FIGR) this Monday, arguing that shares are significantly undervalued relative to the company’s operational trajectory.
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock, FIGR
The firm launched coverage with an “Outperform” rating alongside a $67 price objective — implying roughly 109% appreciation from the stock’s present trading level near $32.
Bernstein’s investment thesis for Figure centers primarily on the company’s accelerating loan production metrics, which have demonstrated remarkable momentum. March alone delivered $1.2 billion in originated loans, representing a 33% month-over-month expansion and marking the first instance of monthly volume exceeding the billion-dollar threshold.
For the complete first quarter, originations totaled $2.9 billion, reflecting more than 100% year-over-year expansion. This performance is particularly noteworthy given that Q1 traditionally represents a seasonally weaker period for home equity line of credit (HELOC) activity.
At current production levels, Figure is running at approximately $12 billion in annualized loan origination volume.
The company specializes in home equity lines of credit, financial products that enable property owners to access borrowing capacity secured by their home equity at interest rates typically below those available on unsecured credit facilities. Figure processes these transactions through the Provenance blockchain network, which the company claims delivers 117 basis points in cost savings per loan compared to conventional lending infrastructure.
Blockchain Technology Powers Competitive Advantage
The underlying blockchain architecture represents a critical component of Bernstein’s investment case. Figure operates beyond pure lending activities — the company has built a tokenized credit marketplace and launched YLDS, a proprietary stablecoin integrated into its expanding financial services ecosystem.
Bernstein’s valuation framework applies approximately 25 times the firm’s projected 2027 EBITDA. This multiple trades at a premium to typical digital asset company valuations, which analysts attribute to Figure’s hybrid business model combining blockchain platform infrastructure with an established, revenue-generating lending operation.
The report notes that recent growth has been driven by strengthening consumer loan appetite and Figure’s expanding distribution partner ecosystem.
Share Performance Diverges from Operational Momentum
The disconnect between Figure’s operational execution and equity performance remains striking. FIGR shares have dropped more than 20% since the beginning of the year, pressured by widespread volatility affecting digital asset-adjacent equities.
The stock has failed to sustain momentum following its September Nasdaq listing, which initially assigned the company an enterprise valuation approaching $800 million.
While fourth quarter results demonstrated top-line and bottom-line growth, actual profitability fell short of consensus projections — a miss that continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
Bernstein acknowledges several material risk factors. HELOC origination volumes maintain high sensitivity to mortgage refinancing activity, creating exposure to interest rate fluctuations. Additionally, the private credit markets that underpin Figure’s growth strategy have exhibited recent stress signals.
Nonetheless, Q1’s $2.9 billion in loan originations represents Figure’s highest quarterly production figure to date.
