Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s MariTide GLP-1 therapy demonstrated approximately 20% weight reduction, rivaling Eli Lilly’s Zepbound performance
- Future quarterly dosing schedule for MariTide could provide significant convenience advantage over competing weekly treatments
- Truist Securities increased AMGN price target from $319 to $325 while maintaining Hold rating
- Firm projects first-quarter 2026 revenue at $9.18 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street’s $8.58 billion estimate
- Wall Street analysts identify potential for AMGN to reach its $388 record peak, representing 11% upside potential
Since April 2025, Amgen has delivered a 25% return, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% gain during the identical timeframe. The biotechnology giant currently commands a $186.4 billion market capitalization and trades at approximately 15 times forward earnings, positioned near the top of its historical five-year valuation band.
The pharmaceutical company’s investigational GLP-1 therapy MariTide continues to capture heightened interest across the investment community. Clinical participants achieved approximately 20% body weight reduction, positioning the drug competitively against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which produces weight loss outcomes in the low-to-mid 20% range. MariTide’s performance also exceeds results from Lilly’s oral alternative Foundayo, which generated roughly 12% weight reduction in clinical studies.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen executives indicated MariTide could transition to a quarterly administration schedule. This represents an improvement over the current monthly dosing regimen and would offer a substantial convenience benefit compared to Zepbound’s weekly injection requirement.
Capturing a modest share of the GLP-1 obesity treatment market could significantly impact Amgen’s financial trajectory. JPMorgan research analysts project the global GLP-1 market reaching $200 billion by decade’s end. Even securing $5 billion in MariTide annual sales would increase Amgen’s total revenue by approximately 13%, calculated against analyst projections of $37.8 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue.
Phase 3 clinical readouts for MariTide are anticipated in early 2027. As this milestone draws closer, Wall Street analysts historically upgrade revenue projections for investigational drugs, moving away from cautious risk-adjusted models toward more optimistic forecasts.
Truist Securities Elevates Target, Anticipates Q1 Revenue Outperformance
Truist Securities this week boosted its AMGN price objective to $325 from $319 while retaining a Hold recommendation. The investment firm anticipates first-quarter 2026 revenue reaching $9.18 billion compared to Street consensus of $8.58 billion, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus consensus expectations of $4.77.
Truist’s quarterly projections exceed consensus across multiple franchise products including Repatha at $874 million, Prolia at $878 million, Evenity at $598 million, and Tezspire at $487 million. The firm also elevated its long-term Krystexxa revenue models following enhanced patent exclusivity extending through 2040.
Truist increased its probability of commercial success assessment for MariTide, acknowledging the drug’s improved competitive positioning within the obesity treatment landscape.
Established Portfolio Provides Foundation for Growth
Separate from its GLP-1 ambitions, Amgen’s established business continues delivering solid results. Fourth-quarter revenue surpassed analyst projections, while earnings exceeded forecasts by nearly 12%. The management team has beaten quarterly earnings estimates in 17 of the past 20 reporting periods. Total revenue growth is projected at just under 3% for 2026, supported by multiple recently launched therapies in early commercialization phases.
The company recently completed a $4 billion debt refinancing at more favorable interest rates. This strategic financial move limits future interest expense growth, positioning any incremental MariTide revenue to translate more efficiently into bottom-line expansion.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral stance with a $350 price objective. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating after encouraging Phase 3 outcomes for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved a 77% proptosis response rate compared to 19.6% in the placebo arm.
AMGN’s all-time peak of $388, established earlier this year, represents approximately 11% appreciation from current price levels.
