TLDR
- WTI crude breached $100 per barrel while Brent climbed 4% to approach $99
- Critical Hormuz waterway remains nearly shut, permitting only four vessels on Wednesday
- Tehran implementing fee structure for tanker passage through strategic channel
- Iran claims US breached ceasefire terms; Israeli operations in Lebanon spark tensions
- Major banks project Brent at $80 for Q4 but acknowledge significant upside potential
Crude oil markets experienced sharp gains Thursday following deterioration of the recently announced US-Iran ceasefire and continued restrictions on vessel movement through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures advanced 4% to approximately $98.57 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate surged 6.6% to cross the $100 threshold. Both benchmarks had experienced significant declines Wednesday following Tuesday’s ceasefire declaration.
The dramatic price swing occurred as evidence mounted that the ceasefire framework was not producing expected results.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, declared via X that the framework agreement with the United States “has been openly and clearly violated.” He cited ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon and alleged US drone incursions into Iranian territory as factors making further negotiations “unreasonable.”
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 8, 2026
Tehran provides support to Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, and Iranian officials have maintained that any cessation of hostilities must encompass Lebanese territories. However, Washington has stated its agreement with Iran does not extend to Lebanon.
Israeli forces conducted strikes against over 100 Lebanese targets Wednesday alone, representing one of the campaign’s most intensive periods. Military operations have persisted despite global appeals for de-escalation.
Hormuz Waterway Restrictions Fuel Price Surge
The strategic Strait of Hormuz facilitates approximately 20% of global oil supply. The waterway has remained predominantly closed since the ceasefire announcement late Tuesday.
S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded just four vessel transits through the strait Wednesday. This figure represents a dramatic reduction from typical daily volumes. Reuters data shows a single oil tanker completed the passage within the last 24-hour period.
Iranian authorities have communicated to intermediaries plans to limit daily crossings to roughly twelve vessels while implementing toll charges. Various sources indicate fees may reach $1 per barrel. Capital Economics characterized this transformation as converting the strait from an unrestricted international waterway into a regulated toll passage.
Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, leading Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated via LinkedIn: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
Vessel-tracking service MarineTraffic reports more than 400 ships currently stranded throughout the region.
Washington Threatens Force if Agreement Collapses
Vice President JD Vance declared Wednesday evening that should the strait fail to reopen, the United States would not “abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”
President Trump indicated via Truth Social Thursday morning that American military forces would maintain regional presence “until such time as the real agreement is fully complied with.” He cautioned that Iranian non-compliance would trigger military response, stating “the ‘shootin’ starts.”
Trump verified through another post that both nations have committed to maintaining the strait as an open and secure passage.
Goldman Sachs researchers anticipate energy shipments will begin normalizing this weekend, projecting a gradual month-long recovery to pre-conflict export volumes. Their Q4 Brent projection remains at $80 per barrel while acknowledging elevated risks. Extended strait closure could push Q4 averages to $100. Incomplete Gulf production restoration might drive prices to $115.
UBS maintains an $80 Brent Q4 forecast but highlights unresolved concerns, particularly whether major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia and the UAE would risk tanker transit through Iranian-controlled waters. These nations currently have 4 million barrels daily of offline production capacity.
American and Iranian representatives are scheduled to convene in Islamabad, Pakistan, Saturday.
