Key Takeaways
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) from Buy to Hold following approximately 70% gains over two months.
- Price target increased to $154 from $108 by analyst Paul Meeks, who cited valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals.
- The stock has skyrocketed 574% year-over-year, trading close to its 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026-2027 were upgraded, surpassing Street expectations.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) now offer more attractive near-term risk-reward profiles, according to the firm.
Nebius Group (NBIS) has delivered extraordinary returns. However, following an almost parabolic ascent of approximately 70% since early February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks has pumped the brakes — though only on his recommendation.
This past Thursday, Meeks downgraded his stance on NBIS from Buy to Hold while simultaneously lifting his price objective to $154 from $108. While this dual action may appear inconsistent, the rationale is clear: the shares appreciated more rapidly than anticipated.
NBIS started February around $85.19. By April 10, shares had reached $144.97. That represents approximately $60 in appreciation across just over eight weeks. The equity now hovers near its 52-week pinnacle of $149.82.
Expanding the timeframe reveals an even more remarkable trajectory. Throughout the trailing twelve months, NBIS has delivered a staggering 574% return.
Meeks isn’t expressing concerns about the underlying business fundamentals. Quite the opposite — his outlook has actually improved. The firm elevated its revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for both 2026 and 2027. Both forecasts now exceed consensus Wall Street estimates.
The projections are substantial. Between 2026 and 2027, Freedom Capital anticipates revenue expansion exceeding 200% with adjusted EBITDA climbing approximately 336%.
Catalysts Behind the Bullish Projections
A primary driver for the anticipated 2027 acceleration stems from a capacity expansion unveiled on March 31. Nebius revealed plans to deploy 310 MW of AI infrastructure in Lappeenranta, Finland. This capacity is scheduled to become operational next year.
Upon full deployment, the installation is projected to rank among Europe’s most substantial AI factories. This represents a critical component of the growth narrative extending into 2027.
The revised $154 price objective reflects 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA forecast, contrasted with 25 times its 2026 projection — acknowledging the dramatic growth trajectory the firm anticipates between these periods.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $150 price target. BWS Financial maintains a $200 objective, following a $12 billion agreement Nebius finalized with Meta Platforms — with potential for an additional $15 billion.
Wall Street Sentiment
According to TipRanks, NBIS maintains a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The average analyst price target stands at $165.20, suggesting approximately 14% upside potential from current trading levels.
In March, Nebius also completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — expanded from an initial $3.75 billion. The transaction comprised $2.25 billion in notes maturing 2031 and $1.75 billion due 2033, settling March 20.
Meeks indicated he currently identifies more favorable near-term opportunities in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) relative to NBIS at present valuations.
The downgrade reflects valuation timing rather than fundamental deterioration. Freedom Capital continues viewing NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure investment — simply one where the stock price may require time to justify current levels.
