Key Takeaways
- Bernstein anticipates prediction market trading volumes will surge to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, climbing from $51 billion recorded in 2025
- Combined trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi platforms has already surpassed $60 billion through 2026 year-to-date
- While sports betting currently accounts for 62% of total volume, analysts predict crypto and macroeconomic contracts will eventually dominate
- Sector revenues are projected to expand from $400 million in 2025 to $10.8 billion by decade’s end
- Bernstein identifies Robinhood and Coinbase as primary distribution leaders, setting price targets at $130 and $330 respectively
Investment research firm Bernstein has released an analysis forecasting that prediction market trading volumes will climb to approximately $1 trillion by 2030. This represents an extraordinary expansion from the $51 billion in volume recorded during 2025.
The brokerage anticipates trading volumes will reach approximately $240 billion during 2026. This trajectory suggests an impressive 80% compound annual growth rate extending through the remainder of the decade.
Leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have collectively processed $60 billion in trading volume through 2026 to date. This aggressive growth rate indicates the sector is outpacing previous industry projections.
Analysts at Bernstein, headed by Gautam Chhugani, identify two primary catalysts fueling this expansion. First, improved regulatory clarity at the federal government level. Second, blockchain-based infrastructure enabling worldwide access and rapid deployment of new event-based contracts.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has claimed exclusive regulatory authority over prediction market platforms. The agency is actively developing comprehensive guidelines as the sector continues expanding.
Sports-related contracts currently represent approximately 62% of total prediction market activity. Lower transaction costs relative to conventional sportsbooks have contributed to this substantial market share.
Beyond Sports Betting
Bernstein forecasts that sports betting’s dominance will decline to roughly 31% by 2030. Cryptocurrency-related contracts, alongside macroeconomic, political, and economic event markets, are projected to capture the majority of trading activity.
Research analysts predict an institutional marketplace will emerge centered on economic, business, and political event contracts. Corporate entities and insurance providers may increasingly utilize these platforms to manage event-driven risk exposure.
Regarding revenue generation, the prediction market industry generated approximately $400 million during 2025. Bernstein’s models project revenue will climb to $2.5 billion in 2026, subsequently reaching $10.8 billion by 2030.
Polymarket recently transitioned from its zero-commission structure. The platform currently operates at an annualized revenue rate of $420 million.
Robinhood and Coinbase Emerge as Market Leaders
Robinhood has established a $350 million annualized revenue stream from prediction markets just twelve months after launching its Kalshi-integrated platform. The financial services company is simultaneously developing proprietary exchange technology.
Coinbase established its presence in the sector through partnership with Kalshi, providing platform users with access to over 1,000 contracts across the nation.
Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on both equities. The research firm established a $130 price objective on Robinhood stock, representing approximately 81% potential upside from Monday’s closing price. The $330 price target assigned to Coinbase suggests roughly 89% appreciation potential.
Research analysts observed that Robinhood shares have declined approximately 50% since late 2025. They contend that disappointing first quarter performance is already reflected in current valuations, with trading activity expected to rebound during the second quarter.
Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will expand from approximately $150 million in 2025 to $586 million throughout 2026. Analysts also highlighted the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted in the United States and midterm congressional elections as significant volume-driving events on the horizon.
