Key Takeaways
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns cryptocurrency markets are too risky for active trading
- Geopolitical conflict involving the US and Iran, plus AI-driven job displacement, are creating market uncertainty
- Hayes describes three potential paths that could send Bitcoin to $80,000–$90,000
- He refuses to purchase more Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve commits to monetary expansion
- Currently, Hayes is exclusively accumulating gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
- Hayes forecasts Hyperliquid will capture significant market share from Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and now serves as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, revealed he has conducted minimal trading activity during Q1 2025. In an April 15 statement, Hayes characterized cryptocurrency markets as unsuitable for trading at present.
"No Trade Zone" discusses the impact on $BTC based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. pic.twitter.com/spNEjrnPI7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 16, 2026
According to Hayes, two critical developments justify his defensive positioning: artificial intelligence systems displacing white-collar workers, and escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The Maelstrom chief warns that AI-driven workforce reduction could spark widespread consumer credit failures. He draws parallels to the 2008 financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgage defaults.
Hayes notes corporations have already begun reducing headcount. He cited one cryptocurrency gaming executive who leveraged AI tools to accomplish six months of development work in just four days, subsequently eliminating half the company’s workforce.
With unemployment benefits averaging approximately $28,000 annually while knowledge workers typically earn between $85,000 and $90,000, Hayes anticipates this income shortfall will generate substantial defaults on consumer loans held by financial institutions.
Hayes Outlines Three Possible Bitcoin Trajectories
The former BitMEX executive presents three distinct scenarios connected to the geopolitical situation.
The first scenario involves conflict resolution and normalization of international relations. However, deflationary pressures from AI advancement would persist, ultimately forcing the Federal Reserve to implement monetary expansion to prevent banking sector failures.
The second possibility sees Iran maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz while demanding toll payments denominated in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. Countries would liquidate US dollar-denominated holdings to satisfy these requirements, creating downward pressure on government bonds, equities, and Bitcoin.
The third scenario involves successful US military operations eliminating Iran’s capacity to blockade the strait. Hayes anticipates Iranian counterstrikes targeting energy facilities throughout the Gulf region, which would compel central banks worldwide to activate their money printers.
Regardless of which scenario unfolds, Hayes maintains that monetary expansion becomes inevitable. Still, he will wait for Federal Reserve action before purchasing Bitcoin. While acknowledging Bitcoin could surge toward $80,000–$90,000, he believes current risk-reward dynamics remain unfavorable.
Maelstrom Focuses on Precious Metals and HYPE Token
Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% over the preceding seven days, currently changing hands above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest outperformance relative to US technology stocks appears constructive but insufficient to alter his cautious stance.
He identifies one key indicator guiding his decision-making: the MOVE Index, which measures volatility in US Treasury markets. Should this metric exceed 130, Hayes expects monetary stimulus measures to follow.
Presently, Maelstrom is exclusively accumulating physical gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold is currently trading near $4,830, posting approximately 1% gains today. HYPE has surged 18% over the past week, reaching $45.31.
Hayes anticipates Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 implementation will catalyze a significant rally in HYPE. He projects the decentralized platform will capture substantial trading volume from prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE has appreciated 18% during the past seven days and trades at $45.31 at publication time.
