Key Highlights
- Brent crude surged to $113.52 per barrel while WTI exceeded $100 amid Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum
- President Trump warned of strikes on Iranian power facilities unless the strait reopens; Tehran pledged countermeasures
- More than 40 energy facilities across nine nations have sustained damage since Middle East hostilities began
- IEA leadership stated emergency stock releases won’t solve the crisis, likening it to both 1970s oil shocks simultaneously
- Goldman Sachs elevated its 2026 Brent projection to $85 per barrel from $77, anticipating extended supply constraints
Crude oil markets continued their upward trajectory on Monday as traders showed little confidence that President Trump’s 48-hour deadline to Iran would result in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” – President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/htLz1A0Mf7
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) March 22, 2026
The international Brent crude benchmark advanced 1.2% to settle at $113.52 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 2.5% to close at $100.71 per barrel. Brent has experienced a dramatic rally of over 50% since coordinated U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran commenced in late February.
During the weekend, Trump demanded that Iran “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz within a 48-hour window or risk military action targeting its electrical infrastructure. Iranian officials countered with warnings of retaliatory strikes against critical facilities throughout the Middle East region.
The majority of energy analysts expressed doubt that Iran would yield to such demands on an abbreviated timeline. “The likelihood of Tehran accepting Trump’s conditions under this compressed schedule while facing military threats is extremely low,” noted Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “Iran has demonstrated both the capacity and determination to reciprocate any escalation.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that American military operations focus on eliminating defensive positions surrounding the strait, emphasizing that Trump would employ “whatever steps it takes” to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapon capabilities.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical gateway connecting Persian Gulf oil producers to international markets. Commercial shipping through this vital passage has essentially ground to a halt. Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf region have been compelled to stockpile millions of barrels or rely on constrained alternative shipping channels.
IEA Leadership Compares Crisis to Historical Supply Disruptions
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, addressed attendees at an Australian energy conference, characterizing the ongoing supply disruption as comparable to the combined impact of both major 1970s oil crises and the 2022 natural gas shortage following Russia’s Ukraine invasion — “all happening simultaneously.”
Birol further revealed that no fewer than 40 energy infrastructure sites have suffered substantial damage spanning nine countries since hostilities erupted. Though the IEA is evaluating the deployment of strategic petroleum reserves, Birol emphasized that releasing emergency stocks would fail to address the fundamental crisis.
The regional confrontation has now stretched into its 24th consecutive day, representing double the duration of a comparable crisis involving the same actors during the previous year.
Goldman Sachs Increases Crude Outlook
Goldman Sachs revised its oil price projections upward over the weekend. The financial institution now anticipates Brent will average $85 per barrel throughout this year, representing an increase from its prior $77 estimate. The bank’s WTI projection rose to $79 per barrel from the previous $72 forecast.
“Transit through Hormuz is now projected to operate at just 5% of normal capacity for a six-week period, followed by a slow restoration process,” wrote analysts led by Daan Struyven.
The analysts emphasized that crude prices would likely continue climbing until markets develop conviction that an extended disruption can be avoided.
Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, commented: “We’ll likely need to see more widespread problems affecting shipping operations or insurance availability before prices accelerate more dramatically.”
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, has pulled out of the upcoming CERAWeek conference in Houston scheduled for this week, where oil market fundamentals and the regional conflict were anticipated to be central discussion topics.
