Key Highlights
- Citi analyst issued a Sell rating on Gemini Space Station (GEMI), slashing the price target from $13 down to $5.50
- Shares declined 5.1% during premarket hours to $6.75, marking a 28% decline year-to-date
- The firm forecasts a $263 million adjusted EBITDA deficit for 2025, with profitability not expected until 2029
- App downloads plunged to 41,000 in February, a significant decrease from the 100,000+ monthly downloads seen in previous months
- The company has implemented workforce reductions of 25% and exited operations in the UK, Europe, and Australia
Gemini Space Station made its market debut at $28 per share last September. Today, shares hover around $6.75. The narrative took another negative turn on Wednesday.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock, GEMI
Peter Christiansen, an analyst at Citi, issued a downgrade of GEMI from Neutral to Sell while simultaneously reducing his price target to $5.50 from the previous $13. This assessment appeared in a Wednesday research report, released just before Gemini’s fiscal-year earnings announcement scheduled for Thursday evening.
Shares fell 5.1% before the market opened. The stock has declined 28% throughout 2025.
The Winklevoss brothers brought Gemini public during a favorable period for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin was hovering near record highs when GEMI began trading. Since October, however, Bitcoin has retreated approximately 40% from those peaks, causing trading activity to contract throughout the sector.
This market deterioration is directly impacting Gemini’s performance. Reduced trading activity translates to diminished revenue generation, and the company was already operating at a loss.
Path to Profitability Extends to 2029
Citi had previously anticipated Gemini would achieve positive EBITDA by 2028. The firm has now extended that timeline to 2029 or later.
For the current year, Christiansen anticipates an adjusted EBITDA deficit of $263 million. This represents a substantial cash burn rate as the company attempts to expand its platform amid challenging market conditions.
“We have increasing concerns the company will be challenged to scale profitability within a reasonable time frame for equity investors,” Christiansen wrote.
He additionally noted that legislative advancement on the CLARITY Act, which could provide regulatory clarity for crypto platforms, remains gridlocked as critical provisions undergo continued debate.
User Engagement Showing Weakness
Metrics related to user activity paint a concerning picture. Monthly unique visitors accessing the Gemini platform have declined steadily since the September IPO.
Application downloads totaled just 41,000 in February. This represents a sharp drop from the more than 100,000 monthly downloads recorded consistently throughout the preceding nine-month period.
For a business model dependent on network effects, this type of engagement decline presents significant challenges without a meaningful catalyst.
Gemini has implemented aggressive cost-reduction measures. The company revealed last month that approximately 25% of its workforce would be eliminated.
Additionally, the firm announced plans to cease operations across the UK, European, and Australian markets. The company’s COO, CFO, and Chief Legal Officer have all exited their positions.
“We find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down,” the Winklevoss twins wrote in a blog post explaining the international exit.
While these reductions clearly aim to extend the company’s financial runway, Citi remains skeptical about whether the measures provide sufficient breathing room.
Gemini will release complete fiscal-year financial results following Thursday’s market close. This earnings report will provide critical insight into whether the company’s restructuring initiatives are producing meaningful results.
