Key Takeaways
- Friday’s quadruple witching event will trigger the simultaneous expiration of trillions in equity and index derivatives
- BTC declined beneath the $70,000 threshold on Thursday, failing to maintain crucial support zones
- Historical data reveals Bitcoin typically experiences subdued movement on witching days, followed by extended periods of decline
- The current crypto market downturn is primarily fueled by derivatives traders rather than spot market participants
- An independent $13.5 billion cryptocurrency derivatives expiration is scheduled for March 27 through Deribit
Bitcoin retreated below the $70,000 mark on Thursday as worldwide financial markets braced for one of the most significant quarterly derivatives events in conventional finance.
Quadruple witching occurs four times annually — specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This phenomenon involves the concurrent expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and individual stock futures.
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The magnitude of this occurrence is substantial. During March 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives reached expiration within a single trading session. That particular day witnessed the most substantial S&P 500 trading volume recorded throughout the entire year, as reported by TradeStation.
Data for the March 2026 expiration has not been released yet.
Throughout these occurrences, financial institutions must simultaneously close out, extend, or finalize their positions. Market activity typically intensifies, and price volatility often becomes more pronounced, particularly during the trading session’s closing hour.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, indicated the occurrence might extend into cryptocurrency markets. He stated “quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire,” noting that the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility index was already showing upward momentum leading into the event.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance During Witching Events
Examining 2025 data, Bitcoin’s price movement on actual quadruple witching days remained relatively stable. The more significant declines materialized in subsequent days and weeks.
On March 21, 2025, Bitcoin experienced minor losses intraday but subsequently reached a bottom around $76,000 following market reactions to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. On June 20, it declined 1.5% and touched a regional low near $98,000 just forty-eight hours later.
On September 19, Bitcoin fell over 1% but then experienced a sharp correction from $177,000 down to $108,000 throughout the subsequent week. On December 19, it concluded approximately 3% higher at $85,000 but continued within a wider bearish trend.
The trend remains uniform: limited volatility on expiration day, succeeded by bearish pressure during the following days or weeks.
Forces Behind the Present Market Decline
Market data indicates the ongoing Bitcoin pullback is predominantly influenced by futures market participants rather than spot market purchasers. The Coinbase premium gap shifted into negative territory, indicating diminished demand from U.S. investors.
Cryptocurrency analyst IT Tech observed that while spot market selling decreased by approximately $40 million, perpetual futures market selling reached a substantially higher $506.75 million. This indicates leveraged market participants are the primary drivers behind the downturn.
Certain traders anticipate a possible near-term bounce. If Bitcoin successfully recaptures $70,000 promptly, the subsequent resistance target stands at $76,000. However, should prices fall beneath $68,300, the next key support zones are positioned at $65,000 and $62,000.
Bryan Tan of Wintermute proposed that “being flat is a strong position” currently and advised maintaining cash reserves until market direction becomes more definitive.
Outside cryptocurrency, the wider financial landscape is contributing additional downward pressure. Oil valuations have climbed toward $120 per barrel, the VIX volatility gauge surged above 35 last week — reaching its highest point in a year — and gold dipped below $4,600.
Moving forward, an additional $13.5 billion cryptocurrency derivatives expiration is scheduled for March 27 on Deribit. Market positioning suggests preference for volatility-focused strategies rather than confident directional positions.
