Key Takeaways
- Research from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates Bitcoin’s superior performance compared to gold and the S&P 500 during 60-day periods following significant global disruptions
- Following the 2025 tariff announcement by Trump, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% gain and the S&P 500’s 4% increase
- Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has climbed 2.2% while gold declined 11% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
- Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows during March, contrasting sharply with gold ETFs’ $2.92 billion in outflows
- Industry analyst James Seyffart projects that Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately exceed gold ETFs in total assets
Fresh analysis from Mercado Bitcoin, a leading Brazilian cryptocurrency platform, reveals that Bitcoin consistently delivers stronger performance than both gold and the S&P 500 index during the two-month periods that follow significant global disruptions.
The comprehensive study was conducted under the direction of Rony Szuster, who serves as Mercado Bitcoin’s research director. Szuster and his research team examined 60-day performance windows after various economic and geopolitical disturbances, including the global COVID-19 pandemic emergence and recent U.S. trade policy shifts.
Following the Trump administration’s announcement of comprehensive tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin surged by 24% during the subsequent 60-day period. In comparison, gold appreciated by 8% while the S&P 500 managed only a 4% gain during the identical timeframe.
This trend was similarly evident during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Bitcoin recorded a 21% increase, significantly outperforming both gold and the S&P 500, which lagged considerably behind.
Szuster cautioned against premature assessments of Bitcoin’s crisis performance. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.
He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate assets rapidly during crisis situations to secure liquidity, which can temporarily suppress even traditionally defensive assets.
Bitcoin Demonstrates Strength Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
This established pattern appears to be repeating itself during the ongoing U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, advancing from roughly $65,800 to $67,300.
Gold, conventionally regarded as a refuge during turbulence, has depreciated approximately 11% during the comparable period. The S&P 500 has declined 4.4%, representing its most severe monthly contraction since 2022.
Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin delivered the strongest returns among major assets throughout the previous decade, notwithstanding its characteristic volatility.
Bitcoin ETFs Capturing Market Share From Gold Funds
ETF specialist James Seyffart stated during an appearance on the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds may ultimately overtake gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He identified Bitcoin’s multiple functions including digital gold, value preservation, portfolio diversification tool, and growth-oriented investment.
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he stated.
Current capital flow statistics support this changing investor preference. Throughout March, gold ETFs based in the United States experienced net redemptions totaling $2.92 billion. During this same interval, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.32 billion in net contributions.
The premier US gold ETF experienced a $3 billion single-session outflow on March 4, marking the largest daily redemption in more than two years.
Both asset classes have declined over the trailing 30-day period. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8% while gold has fallen about 8.25%, indicating largely parallel movement despite divergent ETF activity.
In December 2025, Chris Kuiper, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated periods of relative outperformance.
