Key Takeaways
- Rocket Lab achieved 38% revenue growth, reaching $601.8 million in 2025, supported by a $1.85 billion contract backlog
- An $816 million Space Development Agency contract strengthens Rocket Lab’s position in government aerospace
- AST SpaceMobile generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue as it continues building its satellite constellation
- AST maintains robust financial flexibility with over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity for satellite expansion
- Analyst sentiment favors Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy rating, while AST faces a Reduce consensus
Two space companies are capturing investor attention in 2026: Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Despite operating in the same sector, these firms represent radically different investment opportunities. One has established a diversified aerospace operation. The other is pursuing an ambitious technology that could revolutionize global mobile communications.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial performance throughout 2025. The company’s revenue surged 38% year-over-year to $601.8 million. Its fourth quarter set a company record with $179.7 million in revenue. Perhaps most significantly, Rocket Lab closed 2025 with a contract backlog totaling $1.85 billion—a 73% increase from the previous year. This substantial backlog provides unusual revenue visibility compared to most aerospace ventures.
The company’s revenue streams demonstrate meaningful diversification beyond launch services. Product sales generated $371.6 million during 2025, complemented by $230.2 million from services. Rocket Lab has successfully expanded into spacecraft manufacturing, component production, and defense systems for national security applications.
Major Government Wins Provide Rocket Lab Revenue Certainty
Rocket Lab secured a significant $816 million agreement with the Space Development Agency. This substantial contract validates the company’s capabilities in handling complex, multi-year government programs. Meanwhile, its Neutron medium-lift launch vehicle represents the primary catalyst for anticipated future expansion.
However, profitability remains elusive. Rocket Lab recorded a net loss of $198.2 million during 2025. Company leadership has projected continued adjusted EBITDA losses through the first quarter of 2026. The current valuation reflects investor confidence in future operational scale rather than present-day earnings.
AST SpaceMobile pursues an entirely different strategy. The company is developing a revolutionary space-based cellular network designed to connect directly with ordinary smartphones—eliminating the need for specialized equipment. Successfully executing this vision at scale could unlock markets traditional satellite providers cannot access.
AST remains in the early commercialization phase. The company reported $70.9 million in total 2025 revenue. Fourth-quarter performance alone accounted for $54.3 million, primarily from gateway system deliveries, mobile operator partnerships, and government contract milestones.
Strong Balance Sheet Supports AST SpaceMobile’s Deployment Plans
The company closed 2025 with $2.8 billion in cash and equivalents. Following additional capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This substantial financial cushion enables continued satellite deployment without near-term funding pressures.
AST has secured more than $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments from commercial partners. For a company just beginning revenue generation, these commitments represent significant validation. Nevertheless, AST continues posting substantial losses, and success ultimately depends on deployment velocity and network reliability.
Analyst ratings reveal Wall Street’s contrasting perspectives. Rocket Lab carries a Moderate Buy consensus: 2 Strong Buys, 7 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell rating. AST SpaceMobile faces a Reduce consensus: 2 Buys, 6 Holds, and 3 Sells.
Investment Implications
Analysts express greater confidence in Rocket Lab’s established business model. While AST’s potential upside is acknowledged, it remains difficult to quantify at this development stage. Rocket Lab represents the mature option—delivering stronger revenue, broader diversification, and more favorable analyst coverage. AST SpaceMobile offers the speculative opportunity with transformative potential if its satellite broadband architecture succeeds.
Rocket Lab provides the more solid investment foundation today. AST SpaceMobile represents the moonshot with exponential upside potential. The appropriate choice depends entirely on individual risk tolerance and investment timeframe.
