Key Takeaways
- Micron shares have declined approximately 20% following its Q2 report on March 18, fueled by concerns that Google’s TurboQuant technology could diminish memory chip demand
- Mizuho’s Vijay Rakesh continues to rate the stock Outperform with a $530 price objective, viewing the decline as an attractive entry point
- The company’s Q2 performance showed DRAM average selling prices climbing in the mid-60% range, while NAND ASPs surged in the high-70% range, demonstrating robust pricing strength
- Wall Street remains divided: certain analysts view the selloff as emotionally-driven, while others highlight risks from customer concentration and pricing sustainability questions
- Over the trailing twelve months, Micron shares have skyrocketed 324%, surpassing gains from Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and Broadcom
Micron’s recent trajectory has been nothing short of turbulent. Following an extraordinary rally in the chip sector — climbing 324% year-over-year — the memory manufacturer encountered significant headwinds. The trigger? Google’s introduction of TurboQuant, a lossless compression algorithm that sent investors scrambling with worries about diminished future demand for DRAM and NAND products. Wall Street’s response was swift and decisive.
Following the company’s second-quarter financial results released March 18, shares have tumbled approximately 20%. This represents a considerable correction for a business that recently dominated conversations around the artificial intelligence boom.
The selloff stems from a simple premise: if Google’s TurboQuant achieves efficient data compression while maintaining model precision, cloud infrastructure providers may require significantly less physical memory for AI operations. Reduced DRAM and NAND consumption would undermine Micron’s pricing leverage. Yet this reasoning faces substantial pushback from market observers.
Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho mounted a vigorous defense. He preserved Outperform ratings on both Micron and Sandisk (SNDK), setting price objectives at $530 and $710 respectively. Rakesh referenced the Jevons paradox — an economic principle suggesting that efficiency gains frequently stimulate increased usage rather than contraction. His illustration: when DeepSeek emerged in 2025 and initially pressured GPU manufacturers, AI infrastructure investment actually intensified subsequently.
Rakesh additionally highlighted Google’s TurboQuant documentation as potentially enabling larger-scale models and accelerated inference capabilities, both requiring significant memory resources. He characterizes the present decline as excessive market pessimism.
Examining Micron’s Financial Performance
Micron’s second-quarter results painted an encouraging picture. DRAM bit shipments expanded mid-single digits sequentially, yet average selling prices jumped in the mid-60% range. NAND bit shipments increased low-single digits, accompanied by ASP growth in the high-70% range. These represent substantial pricing advantages, propelled by constrained supply rather than surging volumes.
Seeking Alpha’s Oliver Rodzianko emphasized this pattern. He noted Micron currently faces greater supply limitations than demand challenges, with DRAM and NAND market tightness expected to persist through 2026 according to company projections. His apprehension centers not on technological capabilities — but on whether Micron’s profitability stems from sustainable pricing or temporary conditions.
Should pricing revert to historical norms, profit margins could contract significantly. Rodzianko additionally highlighted customer concentration vulnerabilities: Micron maintains heavy exposure to hyperscaler capital expenditures, meaning any slowdown in infrastructure buildouts would rapidly impact financial performance.
Optimistic Analysts Emphasize AI Infrastructure Growth
Analyst Dmytro Lebid adopted a considerably more positive stance. He attributed the decline to “irrational investor behavior” and suggested the market exaggerates deceleration threats. From his perspective, hyperscalers’ requirements for HBM3E memory remain robust, and Micron’s supply-constrained status preserves healthy margins.
He contends that demand from Nvidia alone should continue expanding, establishing a sustainable foundation beneath Micron’s pricing structure.
The company is simultaneously expanding production capabilities across Idaho, Tongluo, and Singapore facilities through 2027–2028 — representing a long-term commitment based on expectations that AI-driven memory consumption will maintain its upward trajectory.
As of early April 2026, Micron shares traded near $366, reflecting a market capitalization approaching $413 billion within a 52-week trading range of $61.54 to $471.34.
