Quick Overview
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 to $90 while maintaining Buy rating
- Compass Point lowered forecast from $127 to $108, retaining Buy rating
- Trading data for March revealed declining activity in equities, options, and cryptocurrency
- Shares have plunged 52% in the last half-year and are down 38% in 2025
- Banking arm shows strength with deposits exceeding $1.5 billion milestone
The popular trading platform has encountered a challenging period as several Wall Street firms revised their outlooks downward following disappointing performance data for March.
Needham’s John Todaro adjusted his price objective from $100 down to $90 this Wednesday, though he continues to recommend the stock. His analysis highlighted deceleration throughout virtually all platform segments.
“We view HOOD as the most advanced financial services platform in its transformation into a financial super app, but the latest volume figures and reduced net interest revenue indicate a more subdued environment,” Todaro explained.
The March trading data, published on March 30, indicated equity notional volumes of approximately $196 billion. Options contract activity reached 187 million, while cryptocurrency notional volumes totaled $16 billion.
Todaro decreased his projections for equities and options in Q1 2026 while maintaining cryptocurrency volume estimates unchanged, noting that declines in that segment had already been factored into previous models. He also trimmed revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027, citing anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.
The revised $90 price objective reflects 27 times Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.
This action came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak lowered his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. His adjustment followed declining crypto transaction revenue, exacerbated by wider cryptocurrency market weakness.
Compass Point Joins Downward Revision Trend
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly decreased his price target on Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy recommendation. His financial models place Q1 revenue 9% beneath consensus expectations, with shortfalls anticipated across all three operating segments.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically decelerates following five to six consecutive months of volatile market conditions, and that most retail investor favorite stocks have declined broadly since early October.
He made a comparison to April 2025, when financial analysts were reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel indicated that a market rebound could position Robinhood as a major beneficiary considering the 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have declined 52% during the past six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock shows a P/E ratio of 34.14 and commands a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro identifies the stock as overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Operations Provide Positive Counterbalance
The picture isn’t entirely negative. Robinhood’s banking operations have surpassed $1.5 billion in total deposits, with close to 100,000 funded accounts — representing approximately 50% deposit growth over a recent timeframe.
Bernstein SocGen Group decreased its price objective from $160 to $130, while maintaining an Outperform recommendation. The firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 price objective, highlighting potential from expanded global retail investor engagement and a comprehensive product offering.
According to TipRanks, HOOD carries a Strong Buy consensus rating built on 15 Buy recommendations and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from present trading levels. The top price target among analysts stands at $147.
Complete Q1 financial results are scheduled for release in May.
