Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight stance on Apple with a $315 price objective
- The firm’s late-2025 AlphaWise survey revealed global iPhone replacement rates reached unprecedented survey levels
- Chinese market upgrade activity jumped 9 percentage points compared to the previous year
- Apple is projected to be the sole major smartphone manufacturer expanding market share in 2026
- Customer interest in paying for Apple Intelligence features has softened on an annual basis
Apple shares experienced an uptick Monday following Morgan Stanley’s release of its late-2025 AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey results, which highlighted exceptional iPhone replacement trends as the company enters 2026.
Shares climbed approximately 1% during premarket hours.
Erik Woodring, the analyst covering the stock with an Overweight recommendation, reaffirmed his $315 price objective. The survey findings support his thesis that Apple maintains a more robust competitive position than Wall Street consensus currently recognizes.
The global blended iPhone replacement rate reached 37% in the survey — representing a 2 percentage point increase year-over-year and establishing a new survey record. China, which has generated investor anxiety, demonstrated upgrade rates rising 9 percentage points annually, also achieving survey highs.
Apple stock was hovering near that price point entering Monday’s session, with the tech giant commanding a market capitalization of $3.64 trillion and trading at a P/E ratio of 31.47.
Customer migration rates to Apple reached a 5-year survey peak. Desired average storage capacity expanded 18% year-over-year. Additionally, 27% of the surveyed installed base expressed interest in a foldable iPhone device — a category where Apple has not yet entered.
iPhone Revenue Projections Exceed Consensus
Woodring indicated he anticipates Apple will be the only major worldwide smartphone producer to expand market share in 2026, according to the survey data.
His fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue projection stands 3% above Wall Street consensus, forecasting 6% growth compared to the Street’s 3% estimate. For fiscal 2027, his projection exceeds consensus by 4% — which he characterizes as potentially the strongest consecutive two-year iPhone growth period in more than a decade.
Apple generated $435.6 billion in revenue during the trailing twelve months, representing 10% growth.
One Area of Weakness
Not all survey metrics trended positively. Customer perception of Apple Intelligence — the company’s artificial intelligence feature suite — and willingness to pay for those capabilities both decreased on a year-over-year basis.
Memory component price inflation is also anticipated to drive global smartphone pricing upward, with Android device makers viewed as better positioned to capitalize on that dynamic compared to Apple.
Other financial institutions have recently issued opinions as well. BofA reduced its Apple price objective to $320 from a previous target, while maintaining a Buy rating, citing expectations surrounding a foldable iPhone introduction in 2026. Bernstein reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a $340 target, highlighting Apple’s approach of providing a wider spectrum of price points to capture market share.
Apple COO Sabih Khan recently traveled to the company’s research facility in Shenzhen and engaged with supply chain partners — indicating sustained operational emphasis on the Chinese market.
