Key Highlights
- Bitcoin declined approximately 1.5% during the week while the S&P 500 plummeted roughly 10% over two trading sessions
- Charles Schwab plans to introduce direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading by the first half of 2026
- Arthur Hayes cautions that Bitcoin may drop beneath $60,000 before climbing to $250,000
- A pessimistic technical analyst forecasts Bitcoin could plunge to $12,000–$13,000 by the middle of 2027
- Historical data reveals Bitcoin typically surpasses gold and the S&P 500 performance within 60 days following major crises
Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience during a turbulent week for traditional markets. As the S&P 500 experienced approximately a 10% decline across two consecutive trading days, Bitcoin’s losses remained modest at around 1.5%. This divergence has prompted investors to reconsider cryptocurrency’s role in their portfolios.
The equity market selloff was triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcements, which sent shockwaves through international financial markets. Throughout the turmoil, Bitcoin maintained support above the $66,000 level, rebounding to approximately $67,300 even as traditional equities continued their descent.
Charles Schwab, overseeing close to $12 trillion in client assets, revealed plans to introduce direct spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The forthcoming “Schwab Crypto” account platform is scheduled to debut during the first six months of 2026.
This offering differs significantly from exchange-traded funds. Clients will gain the ability to maintain cryptocurrency holdings alongside their traditional stocks and bonds within a unified account structure.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev also attracted attention this week by criticizing market closing times as “a legacy design choice” and suggesting that tokenization could enable markets to function more like the internet infrastructure.
Hayes Advises Caution Until Fed Action
Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, maintains a cautious near-term outlook. During his appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, he stated he wouldn’t allocate his final investment dollar to Bitcoin under current conditions.
His rationale centers on the Federal Reserve’s position: the central bank hasn’t yet been compelled to inject additional liquidity into the financial system. Hayes anticipates that tariff policies will eventually generate sufficient voter backlash to prompt the United States to implement capital controls as an alternative strategy.
Such capital controls, according to his analysis, would serve as a significant bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. He maintains his long-term projection of $250,000 to $750,000 per Bitcoin before this market cycle concludes.
However, he issued a warning that an extended military conflict between the United States and Iran could drive Bitcoin beneath the $60,000 threshold in the near term. Additionally, he identified artificial intelligence-driven employment displacement as another potential risk factor that might trigger a deflationary credit crisis.
Historical Performance Analysis
An analysis conducted by Mercado Bitcoin examined the 60-day periods following significant global disruptions, including previous tariff wars and the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings demonstrated that Bitcoin regularly delivered superior returns compared to both gold and the S&P 500 during these timeframes.
Bitcoin typically experiences initial selling pressure during crises as market participants rotate into cash positions. However, historical patterns show it has rebounded with greater speed and magnitude than conventional asset classes.
Contrarian views persist regarding potential price floors. A technical analyst identified as King of the Charts projects Bitcoin will bottom between $51,000 and $53,000, followed by an 80% to 90% collapse to approximately $12,000 by mid-2027.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory for multiple weeks, with measurements approaching single-digit levels.
In a separate conversation with David Lin, Hayes emphasized that purchasing Bitcoin represents the optimal strategy for protecting against fiat currency devaluation, particularly as traditional stock selection has become increasingly challenging.
The Charles Schwab cryptocurrency platform launch remains scheduled for the first half of 2026.
