TLDR
- Bitcoin surged past $72,000 following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s announcement of Lebanon ceasefire negotiations
- BTC has gained 9% in the past 30 days while the iShares Tech-Software ETF declined 12%
- February’s PCE inflation registered 2.8% YoY, matching analyst predictions
- Fourth quarter US GDP was adjusted downward to 0.5% annualized, heightening recession fears
- March’s CPI report — the initial reading post US-Iran conflict — arrives tomorrow with expectations of higher inflation
Bitcoin climbed beyond $72,000 on Thursday following encouraging developments in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed his cabinet to initiate ceasefire discussions with Lebanon concerning Hezbollah’s disarmament. This announcement turned around what had initially appeared to be a declining session for cryptocurrency markets.
BTC experienced approximately a 3% surge following the announcement, hitting $72,300. American equity markets also rebounded, with the Nasdaq advancing 0.65%. WTI crude oil retreated from nearly $103 per barrel to approximately $98.60 following the ceasefire news.
Bitcoin demonstrated superior performance compared to other leading cryptocurrencies throughout the trading session. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP each posted gains under 1%, while BTC maintained its dominance.
Prior to the ceasefire announcement, February’s PCE inflation figures matched market expectations. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed PCE increased 2.8% year-over-year, with core PCE moderating to 3%, compared to January’s 3.1% reading.
BREAKING: February PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8%.
Core PCE inflation falls to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%.
This marks the final pre-Iran War PCE inflation datapoint.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2026
Bitcoin had begun recovering before the ceasefire announcement, climbing from an intraday bottom of $70,500 to approximately $71,200 after the inflation data became public.
Importantly, February’s PCE data reflects the timeframe preceding the late-February commencement of the US-Iran conflict. Analysts and market participants are anticipating more recent data to gauge the war’s impact on consumer prices.
Bitcoin Diverges From Software Sector Performance
Bitcoin and software equities have exhibited divergent trajectories throughout the past month. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has fallen 12% over the last 30 days, whereas BTC has climbed 9% during the identical timeframe.
The 20-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and IGV has declined to 0.34, demonstrating a significant divergence in asset performance patterns.
Federal Reserve Maintains Position as Recession Concerns Mount
Fourth quarter US GDP received a downward revision to a 0.5% annualized rate, suggesting economic deceleration. Nevertheless, market participants reduced risk-averse positioning, partially because slower growth increases the likelihood of government liquidity measures.
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes revealed Federal Reserve officials maintain openness toward rate reductions this year, although most indicated they would contemplate rate increases if inflation persists significantly above the 2% objective. CME FedWatch data indicates a 98.4% probability the Fed maintains current rates at its April 29 policy meeting.
A softening US dollar has provided tailwinds for Bitcoin, as diminished confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation control typically advantages scarce assets.
March’s CPI data releases Friday. Wall Street projections indicate 3.3% YoY, rising from February’s 2.4%, representing the first inflation measurement since the US-Iran conflict commenced.
