Key Highlights
- Q4 revenue reached $57.67 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $52.36 million
- Adjusted loss per share of $0.38 outperformed the anticipated loss of $0.47
- Shares climbed 6.5% in extended trading to $24.44 following a 1% decline during normal market hours
- Company projects 2026 revenue in the range of $420 million to $450 million; Street consensus stands at $440 million
- Analyst sentiment remains bullish with 63% Buy ratings and an average price target near $38, representing approximately 70% upside potential
Firefly Aerospace delivered fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday that exceeded revenue projections, triggering a rally in extended trading hours even as operating losses came in wider than anticipated.
$FLY Lighting Up the Dark! 🛰️🔥
Firefly Aerospace just dropped a MONSTER Q4 report! Record 2025 revenue is up 163% YoY at $159.9M, and they aren't slowing down. 📈💸
The Bull Case: ✅ 2026 Outlook: Revenue guided to $420M-$450M (3x jump!) 🚀 ✅ Alpha Success: "Stairway to… pic.twitter.com/qvi4xx75r7
— robot2trade (@robot2trade1) March 19, 2026
The aerospace company’s Q4 revenue totaled $57.67 million, comfortably beating the Street’s consensus forecast of $52.36 million. The adjusted per-share loss registered at $0.38, representing an improvement over the projected loss of $0.47.
On a GAAP basis, the company posted a loss of $0.26 per share during the period, with net losses totaling $41.06 million for the quarter.
The quarter’s operating loss came in around $86 million. Analysts had anticipated an operating loss nearer to $69 million, marking a shortfall on the profitability front — though most market watchers remain focused on revenue growth at this phase of the company’s development.
FLY shares surged 6.5% during after-hours activity to reach $24.44, following a 1% retreat in the regular trading session. The broader S&P 500 declined 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.4% during the same trading day.
The stock has experienced significant pressure since its August initial public offering, which priced shares at $45. The stock has declined approximately 50% from that offering price.
Forward Revenue Guidance Shows Growth Trajectory
Looking ahead to full-year 2026, Firefly has issued revenue guidance spanning $420 million to $450 million. This range encompasses the Street’s consensus estimate of $440 million, representing substantial expansion from roughly $160 million in 2025. By any standard, this represents an aggressive growth path.
Analyst projections indicate the company will incur an operating loss approaching $180 million during 2026. The investment community doesn’t anticipate positive operating profitability until 2028, when revenue is expected to reach $1.3 billion.
Earnings estimate consensus had deteriorated approximately 9.7% during the three months leading into this quarterly report. However, no downward revisions occurred in the 30-day window immediately preceding the earnings release.
Street Sentiment Stays Positive
Despite the post-IPO decline, Wall Street analysts maintain an optimistic stance on the stock. Among analysts providing coverage on FLY, 63% have assigned Buy or Strong Buy ratings. This exceeds the typical 55%–60% Buy-rating proportion observed across S&P 500 components.
Current analyst ratings break down to 5 Buy or Strong Buy recommendations, 3 Hold ratings, and zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The broader aerospace and defense sector also maintains a consensus Buy rating.
The mean analyst price objective hovers around $38, representing more than 70% upside from current trading levels. The median 12-month price target stands at $32, approximately 28% above the most recent closing price of $22.96.
Firefly’s Blue Ghost spacecraft successfully touched down on the lunar surface in March 2025, fulfilling obligations under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program — a NASA framework that engages private sector companies to transport payloads to and from the moon rather than developing proprietary vehicles.
That lunar mission occurred before the August public offering. Subsequently, market participants have redirected their focus toward operational execution and revenue acceleration.
Fourth-quarter revenue of $57.67 million represented a beat on the top line, while the company’s 2026 guidance spanning $420 million to $450 million encompasses the prevailing Wall Street projection of $440 million.
