Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley’s ETrade platform is reportedly negotiating to oversee the retail allocation for SpaceX’s public offering, which could sideline Robinhood and SoFi
- Sources indicate SpaceX may exclude both Robinhood and SoFi entirely from participation in the deal, though discussions remain fluid
- Bernstein SocGen reduced HOOD’s price target from $160 down to $130, maintaining its Outperform recommendation
- Analysts still anticipate 25% earnings per share expansion in 2026 and project a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027
- Shares of HOOD are currently trading approximately 54% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86
Robinhood is navigating turbulent waters. Trading at $66.02, the stock has shed over half its value from its annual high, and Monday delivered a one-two punch — negative IPO headlines and a reduced analyst price objective.
According to Reuters, Morgan Stanley’s ETrade brokerage arm is engaged in discussions to spearhead the retail investor component of SpaceX’s anticipated public offering. This development would position ETrade ahead of competitors like Robinhood and SoFi, both of which have lobbied for involvement in what analysts expect could become the largest IPO ever recorded.
Insider sources suggest SpaceX is contemplating whether to completely exclude both brokerage platforms from any participation. However, these same sources emphasize that arrangements remain preliminary and subject to modification ahead of the listing, which is anticipated sometime this year.
Being shut out would represent a significant setback. Robinhood and SoFi both secured positions in marquee offerings such as Arm Holdings’ $55 billion market debut and Instacart’s $9.9 billion IPO during 2023. Losing access to SpaceX wouldn’t just be another missed opportunity — it would challenge Robinhood’s reputation as the premier destination for retail participation in blockbuster listings.
Neither brokerage maintains relationships with the investment banks managing the SpaceX underwriting. Morgan Stanley, serving as a primary underwriter, is positioned to channel substantial retail share allocations through ETrade, the platform it purchased in 2020.
Bernstein SocGen Adjusts Price Outlook
Also Monday, Bernstein SocGen reduced its HOOD price objective from $160 to $130, attributing the change to valuation considerations. The research firm maintained its Outperform designation, signaling continued confidence in the stock despite the moderated price expectation.
The updated target incorporates a lower earnings multiple: 35 times projected 2027 EPS, down from the previous 40 times multiple. This calculation assumes a 32% EPS compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2027.
Notwithstanding the reduction, analysts remain constructive on Robinhood’s fundamental business trajectory. The firm anticipates 25% EPS expansion during 2026, even accounting for anticipated weakness in both equity and cryptocurrency markets during the first quarter. Revenue is projected to compound at 30% annually through 2027.
Prediction markets represent an emerging revenue catalyst. Bernstein SocGen estimates these products will generate approximately 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total company revenue in 2026, bolstered by Robinhood’s distribution partnership with Kalshi and its proprietary Rothera exchange infrastructure.
Additional Analyst Perspectives
Cryptocurrency activity is also forecast to rebound significantly. The firm projects a 79% year-over-year increase in crypto trading volumes during the second half of 2026, aided by the integration of the Bitstamp acquisition.
Non-trading revenue streams are expected to climb 27% on an annual basis. This encompasses margin lending against a $17.2 billion portfolio, Gold subscription services serving 4.2 million members, and banking deposit balances exceeding $1 billion.
Wall Street remains divided in its assessment. Barclays maintains an Overweight rating with a $124 price target. Truist carries a Buy recommendation at $120. Jefferies recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $88 objective. Cantor Fitzgerald has adopted a more conservative stance, trimming its target to $95 based on revised revenue projections.
Robinhood’s board recently authorized a $1.5 billion stock repurchase program, which generated favorable commentary from multiple research firms.
The stock presently commands a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.25 with a market capitalization of $59.44 billion.
