Key Takeaways
- Tesla shares have fallen approximately 20% since the start of the year, marking six consecutive weeks of losses through March 30.
- Analysts anticipate Q1 2026 deliveries near 366,000 units, representing growth from last year’s 337,000 deliveries.
- Elon Musk has stated that volume production of the Cybercab robotaxi will commence this April.
- Approval for supervised Full Self-Driving in the Netherlands is expected in April, potentially opening doors across the European Union.
- Earnings forecasts for Q1 stand at 41 cents per share, compared to 27 cents during the same quarter last year.
Tesla (TSLA) shares opened Monday morning at $364.42, posting a modest 0.7% gain while remaining approximately 20% below year-to-date highs.
Monday’s uptick offered little relief following a punishing six-week period that left investors questioning when the electric vehicle maker might regain its footing. Friday’s session closed with a 2.8% decline, capping a week that saw shares dip 1.7% and extending losses to roughly 13% over the full six-week span.
Interestingly, the downturn began during the same week Tesla announced fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed analyst expectations. The automaker delivered 50 cents in earnings per share versus the Street’s 43-cent forecast. However, this still represented a significant retreat from the 73 cents earned in Q4 2024, suggesting investors remain skeptical until sustainable growth materializes.
The market’s next opportunity to evaluate that growth trajectory arrives Thursday with the release of Tesla’s first-quarter 2026 delivery figures, scheduled just before the Good Friday holiday.
Consensus estimates place deliveries around 366,000 vehicles for the quarter, marking an increase from the prior year’s 337,000 units. UBS complicated the picture in mid-March by issuing a more conservative projection of 345,000 deliveries—falling short of the broader analyst consensus hovering near 365,000. Meanwhile, prediction marketplace Polymarket assigns a 62% probability to deliveries landing below the 350,000 threshold.
Tesla registered 336,681 deliveries during Q1 2025. A substantial beat of that baseline would provide evidence that the sales deceleration experienced during last year’s first half—largely blamed on the Model Y refresh transition—has been successfully overcome.
Robotaxi Production Timeline Accelerates
Beyond quarterly delivery metrics, market participants are closely monitoring developments surrounding Tesla’s autonomous taxi initiative. Musk has publicly committed to launching volume production of the Cybercab—Tesla’s purpose-built robotaxi—during April.
The complication: Tesla currently holds no regulatory clearances for the Cybercab. Scaling production without necessary approvals creates the risk of capital allocation inefficiencies and inventory buildup. Nevertheless, initiating manufacturing operations mitigates execution concerns and maintains investor attention on the robotaxi opportunity.
Tesla inaugurated its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas last June and has signaled plans to extend operations to additional metropolitan areas during the first half of 2026. Las Vegas has emerged as a likely candidate for the next market launch.
European Full Self-Driving Breakthrough Pending
Tesla anticipates receiving approval for supervised Full Self-Driving capabilities in the Netherlands this April. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority has confirmed both parties are “currently completing the final steps of the assessment process.”
Securing Dutch approval could establish a framework for expanded European Union accessibility—either through comprehensive bloc-wide authorization or sequential country-specific clearances. Tesla’s market share has eroded across Europe, and deploying FSD functionality there could strengthen the competitive standing of its vehicle lineup throughout the region.
Beyond deliveries, Cybercab production, and European FSD clearance, Tesla is anticipated to introduce the third-generation version of its Optimus humanoid robot within weeks and may potentially showcase the repeatedly postponed Roadster.
Analyst projections call for first-quarter 2026 earnings of 41 cents per share, up from 27 cents posted in Q1 2025. Investors will most likely need to wait for the earnings conference call—scheduled approximately three weeks following the delivery announcement—to receive comprehensive updates on robotaxi expansion plans and the Optimus development schedule.
