TLDR
- TotalEnergies (TTE) climbed approximately 3% in premarket sessions following optimistic Q1 earnings guidance
- Elevated oil and gas prices projected to contribute $2–$2.5 billion to working capital during Q1
- Middle East tensions reduced production by roughly 100,000 bpd, representing approximately 15% of overall output
- LNG performance anticipated to significantly exceed Q4 levels, supported by 10% output growth and robust trading activity
- European refining margins reached $11.40 per ton, reflecting a 192% year-over-year increase; complete results scheduled for April 29
TotalEnergies (TTE) announced Thursday that it anticipates a substantial increase in first-quarter profits, propelled by elevated energy prices and vigorous LNG trading activity, despite production disruptions stemming from the escalating Middle East crisis.
Shares of the French energy giant traded on U.S. exchanges advanced approximately 3% during premarket hours after the announcement.
The company indicated that first-quarter production is projected to remain relatively stable at approximately 2.55 million barrels of oil equivalent per day when compared to the previous quarter.
The ongoing Iran conflict has compelled TotalEnergies to reduce or suspend operations across Qatar, Iraq, and offshore United Arab Emirates facilities. Additionally, a refinery facility in Saudi Arabia was recently shuttered following damage. Collectively, the conflict has reduced daily output by approximately 100,000 barrels — representing roughly 15% of aggregate production.
New operational launches in Libya and Brazil are providing partial compensation for the shortfall.
Price Appreciation and Trading Drive Profit Gains
Notwithstanding the production setback, TotalEnergies indicated that rising hydrocarbon prices are projected to inject an estimated $2 billion to $2.5 billion into working capital throughout the quarter.
LNG performance is anticipated to substantially outpace fourth-quarter figures. The company attributed this to 10% production expansion and vigorous trading operations, with market fluctuations creating favorable conditions.
European refining margins throughout Q1 averaged $11.40 per ton — representing a 192% surge from $3.90 recorded a year prior, exceeding analyst projections. Refinery capacity utilization exceeded 90%.
Integrated Power results are forecast at approximately $500 million, maintaining year-over-year consistency. Marketing and Services divisions are similarly tracking aligned with the comparable prior-year period.
What Analysts Are Saying
Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson characterized the announcement as a “small positive,” noting that TotalEnergies appears to be navigating working capital challenges more effectively than certain competitors, including Shell and BP.
Wilson highlighted the possibility of an approximately 10% outperformance relative to Q1 consensus net income expectations of €4.8 billion. He identified LNG trading operations as the principal upside catalyst.
TotalEnergies has scheduled the release of comprehensive first-quarter financial results for April 29.
